Forex Trading Library

Intraday Analysis 16.07.2024

USD Inflation Still Worries the Fed

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USDCHF stuck in a channel
USDCHF Chart: USDCHF in a descending channel with USD inflation concerns impacting the US dollar.

The US dollar sank further as USD inflation woes weigh heavy, and the Fed is expected to start trimming rates this year. On the chart, sentiment has turned from cautious to highly bearish. A move below this month’s low of 0.8900 is a vital sign of liquidation as the remaining buyers scramble to exit the market. As the RSI shows a repeatedly oversold condition, 0.8940 is the next level to see if any support would show up, and 0.8980 at the top end of the descending channel is the first layer of resistance to clear.

AUDUSD tests key resistance
AUDUSD Chart: AUDUSD testing key resistance as the Australian dollar climbs.

The Australian dollar continues to climb after a breakthrough in another hurdle. The pair has recovered from most of the recent decline and is on its way to testing December’s peak at 0.6870. A break above this crucial resistance would open the door to the psychological level of 0.6900, which would be a step closer to a bullish reversal. In the meantime, an overbought RSI could cause a limited fallback, especially if intraday bulls decide to close some positions. 0.6740 would be the first support in this case.

US 100 continues higher
US 100 Chart: US 100 hitting record highs with key support and resistance levels.

The Nasdaq move again into record-high territory after a brief pullback. Despite a bit of whipsaw, the psychological level of 20000 and the 20-day SMA has seen a buildup in buying pressure. A subsequent pop above 20300 could have cleared out the sellers and forced them to switch sides. As trend followers join in, they could see any fallback as an opportunity to buy. The index is heading towards 20750, with 20500 as the next target.

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