EURUSD (1.11): EURUSD has posted a lower low and a possible lower high after the previous rally to 1.15. Based on the lower highs and lows, the bias is to the downside with the next support at 1.0977 being very likely to be tested. To the upside, only a close above the previous high of 1.1314 could shift the bias to the upside but only on clearing the strong resistance near 1.148 – 1.144 region. There is a strong possibility that EURUSD could remain range bound in the near term. The minor support at 1.1133 has so far managed to trigger a bounce from the declines but this bounce could be short lived. The test to 1.0977 – 1.0945 could be the most likely support that will hold any declines pushing EURUSD back to trading sideways within the main support/resistance levels noted.
GBPUSD (1.53): After nine straight days of declining from the highs near 1.5685 GBPUSD has managed to find support at 1.5215 with a near bullish engulfing candlestick. The bounce off the current support could see a test to as high as 1.544 region. Only a close above 1.544 and potentially establishing support at this level will ascertain a further rally towards the previous resistance at 1.5685. To the downside, if prices are contained near 1.544, GBPUSD could test the current support which could give way for a decline to 1.50 and eventually to 1.4992 level of support.
USDJPY (119): USDJPY has stalled in its declines at the moment as the currency pair is attempting to rally higher. A close above the previous highs at 120.3 will most likely validate this bias and will then set the stage for a rally towards 121.81 level of resistance. To the downside, a break below the most recent close at 119 could see a minor decline to 118.28 which marks a strong level of support as well as the previous reversal from the declines. To the upside, the bias points to a retest of 121.8 – 122 level which marks the 61.8% retracement level and one to watch for potential reversals.
USDCAD (1.32): USDCAD has been range bound for close to two weeks, trading within the highs of 1.336 and 1.321 lows. The longer term rally is supported by the trend line and there is a confluence of the trend line and the horizontal support lows at 1.32 which could be tested in the near term. A close below 1.32 will however shift the bias in USDCAD to the downside, which then paves way for a decline to the next main support at 1.31. To the upside, further gains can be anticipated only on break above the previous highs of 1.33
US Dollar index (96): The US Dollar Index has been trading sideways since last week and is stuck within 96.55 and 95.5 levels of support and resistance. This pattern is indicative of a possible break out in either direction. To the downside, a break below 95.5 will no doubt see a retest back to the next support at 95. A close below 95 could see a steeper decline to 93.25. To the upside, a break of resistance high at 96.55 is needed in order for a test to 97.35 and eventually back to the psychological level of 100. The minor trend line plotted on the chart shows price breaking this rising trend line and the bias therefore is inclined to the downside.
